2016년 4월 28일 목요일

The Lost Fruits of Waterloo 14

The Lost Fruits of Waterloo 14



As to Turkey, her fortunes shrank steadily. At the end of the Balkan
War she retained only 1,900,000 subjects in Europe, inhabitants of
the district around Adrianople. She was becoming a distinctly Asiatic
power, and the sultan must have felt that his hold on Constantinople
was precarious. At the same time, as we shall see later on, Great
Britain had secured a foothold on the shores of the Persian Gulf, and
Russia was extending her influence in Persia, two threats from the
eastward. Any far sighted Turk could see that his country was in danger
of being crushed in a vise of foreign aggression. To which of the great
states should Turkey turn for that protection which had long been her
safety? Not to Russia, whose ambition was for Constantinople itself,
nor to Great Britain, who seemed to desire the Euphrates Valley, and
who was safely established in Egypt. In her extremity she listened to
the suggestions of German wooers, who promised industrial development,
railroads, and financial aid. Here was laid the foundation of
Turko-German sympathy which was to be very important in the Great War.
 
After a calamity has occurred it is easy to point out the course by
which it might have been avoided. It seems certain that if we stood
again where the world stood in 1914 we should not do what we did in
1914. So we can see in what respects the events of the Balkan history
went wrong. But the men who settled the crises of the past were not
able to see what we see. They had the same blindness for the future
that we have for that which lies before us now. They fumbled their
problems as most men fumble problems, as we shall, perhaps, go on
fumbling until the end of time. It is asking much to expect that
statesmen shall be as wise as we who review their deeds.
 
But there are great facts in history which it is possible to know and
use with profit. One of them is the incompetency of the principle
of the Concert of Europe to deal with a situation like that we have
reviewed in the Balkans. Concert predicates a group of satisfied great
states, without over-reaching ambitions, who are willing to unite
their efforts to restrain small states, or even one large state, from
a course which shall force the rest of the world into conflict. When
a group of great states have united to carry out a certain policy,
and another tries to restrain the first group, concert is in great
danger of breaking down. That was the situation in the Balkans. These
states were drawn into the whirl of general European politics, and they
intensified its velocity at one particular corner, so that what may
be contemplated as a harmonious rotary movement broke into a twisting
tornado. If, when the present war is over, the nations of the world
undertake to go on under the old system, trusting to concert as the
means of avoiding war, there is no reason to expect that the future
will be less turbulent than the past.
 
 
 
 
CHAPTER VII
 
GERMAN IDEALS AND ORGANIZATION
 
 
When wars begin between nations we usually see the leaders of thought
on each side busy developing distrust among their own citizens for the
people against whom they are fighting. In accordance with this fact,
the people of the United States have read a great deal since August,
1914, to make them think very unkindly of Germany.
 
This chapter is not a plea for the Germans, and I agree that they did
unnecessarily cruel and impossible things in Belgium. It is not to be
denied that they played a most unwise part in the war game, when they
tried to steal a march on France by invading through Belgium, a thing
they were pledged not to do. It pays to keep faith; and when a nation
does not keep faith other nations have no recourse but to treat it as
if it were a pirate. If they do otherwise, the whole game will become
a pirate’s game, and good faith will disappear from international
relations. If Germany may violate Belgium at will, why may she not
violate Switzerland, Holland, or any other state that stands in her
way; and who would not expect her to do it, if no powers faced her that
were willing and able to dispute her will?
 
It is not improbable that German leaders understood this as well as we
who now pass it under review. They must have made their calculations on
arousing the opposition of the world and proceeded with the expectation
that they would gain so much by their sweep through forbidden Belgium
that they could defy the world. And if things had gone well for them,
the calculation would have been well made. For if Germany had carried
France off her feet and placed her in a position to offer no further
menace during the next ten years, and if she had dealt a similar blow
to Russia, what power could have checked her in the future decade? By
glancing at the situation in Europe today we may see how an intrenched
Germany defies the united and unwhipped world. How much more might she
not have had her way, if the thrust through Belgium had succeeded!
 
Let us suppose that the game of bad faith had proved successful as
planned, what would have been the result? Probably Great Britain would
have wakened slowly to her peril, but her position was such that she
could have done nothing. Her fleet would have been useless against an
enemy that rules on land. Her army could not have met the combined
Teutonic armies, and she would have had no allies. Meanwhile, Germany
and Austria at their leisure could have digested the Balkans and
drawing Turkey into their net could have established a “Mittel-Europa”
that would have left the rest of the world at their mercy. These were
alluring stakes to play for, and it is not hard to see how a nation
whose leaders have thrown aside the homely motto that “Righteousness
exalteth a nation” would be willing to take a chance in order to obtain
them.
 
When we think of such things as these we are in danger of concluding
that they represent the real Germany. We look back to that Germany of
the past which we saw in our youth, whose music we have heard all our
lives, whose Goethe we have read, whose scholarship we have built upon,
and whose toys have amused us and our children through many decades
and ask ourselves whether or not we were mistaken in our ideas of
Germany. Are there two Germanies, and if so, which is the true Germany?
Probably the answer is that each is the real Germany manifesting
herself in different moods. Fundamentally we have an intense and
emotional people, swayed in one instance by artistic emotions, in
another by the love of exact research for facts, in another by the
feeling of domesticity, and in still another by the powerful impulse
of a great national egoism. They are a people who can love much,
hate much, play much, sacrifice much, and serve well when called
into service. In their war-maddened mood they have stained a fair
reputation, and they are now trying to think that the stain will not
matter if they can only fight through to victory. But nations are like
men in this that however successful one may become personally he never
gets to be so great that he can afford to carry a tarnished reputation.
 
Let us turn to the Germany of old and see if we cannot observe the
process by which she came to her present state of mind. While I realize
that it is absolutely necessary for the world to crush her attempt
to rule Europe, I cannot find it in my heart to hate her. She has
risen to such a state of efficiency in social organization and in the
capacity to spread the light of civilization that she commands respect
from thinking foes. It is the duty of the world to chasten the spirit
of arrogance out of her, but to leave her sound and able to deal with
the future in that way in which she is so well fitted to play a strong
and beneficial part. If ever a great people needed the discipline of
disaster to teach them that nations, like men, should do to others as
they wish others to do to them, that nation is the Germany of today. To
understand in what way this splendid state has run away from its past
we shall have to glance at its history in the recent past.
 
For a point of departure let us take the Seven Years’ War. This
struggle was the result of the ambition of young Frederick, a strong
and unethical king of Prussia. When he came to the throne he found
that a parsimonious father had left him a full treasury, an excellent
army, and a united kingdom, while fate had sent the neighboring state
Austria, a young woman for ruler and an army that was not formidable.
It was a favorable opportunity to seize Silesia, which Prussia
considered necessary to her welfare, and to which she had the flimsiest
pretense of right. The rapacity of Frederick, her king, cannot be
justified on moral grounds, and it threw Europe into commotions for
which nearly a quarter of a century was needed for settlement. The last
phase of this quarter-of-a-century was the Seven Years’ War, 1756-1763.
By the time it began Frederick of Prussia was looked upon by his
neighbors as a menace to Europe; and Austria, France, and Russia united
to crush him. He had a friend in Great Britain, who was generally found
among the foes of France. In the great war he waged through seven years
he fought off foes first on one side and then on the other until the
war ended at last with Prussia still unconquered.
 
If hard and valiant fighting and solicitude for the welfare of his
country could redeem the error of the invasion of Silesia the Seven
Years’ War would relieve Frederick, whom posterity calls “Frederick
the Great,” of all odium on account of the thoughtless way in which
he began his wars. Unlike the present kaiser, he began a long reign
rashly and ended it wisely. Administrative reforms and a policy of
peace with his neighbors made his last years a period of happiness for
Prussia.
 
But Silesia fixed a firm hold on the Prussian imagination. Long
justified as an act necessary to the safety of the Fatherland, and
therefore permissible, it has given sanction for the idea that wrong
may be done that good shall result, if only the state is to be
benefitted. It is a false doctrine, and it can do nothing but lead to
wars. Nations are under the same obligations to do right as individuals.
 
The next phase of German history which has interest for us in
connection with this study is that which lies between the years 1806
and 1813. It was a period of deep humiliation at the hands of Napoleon.
The small states were huddled together in a Confederation which was, in
fact, a tool of the Emperor of France, and Prussia lay like a trembling
and crushed thing in his hand. No living man who hates Germany for the
deeds of the present war could wish her a worse fate than Napoleon
inflicted on her after the battle of Jena in 1806. He insulted the
king, burdened the people with requisitions, and limited their armies.
It was the acme of national shame for the nation that is now so strong.
 
The cause of these woes was the lack of organization, and perhaps
Napoleon did the nation a service when he beat the Prussians into a
realization of it. No nation is so poor that it has not reformers who
see in what way its evils may be corrected. In the days that preceded
the calamities of which I speak Prussia had her prophets crying to deaf
men. Misfortune opened the ears of the rulers so that the prophets

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