2016년 4월 28일 목요일

The Lost Fruits of Waterloo 13

The Lost Fruits of Waterloo 13



No treaty ends the march of time, and the Balkan situation continued
to develop along the old lines. In 1881 Greece acquired Thessaly in
accordance with a promise made to her at the Congress of Berlin. In
1885 East Rumelia declared herself united to Bulgaria, acting in
defiance of the will of the Congress of Berlin. The Powers did not
interfere for the same reason that they did not act when Wallachia
and Moldavia united in 1862. To attempt to undo the union would have
precipitated a general war. The Concert was stronger to prevent a given
action than to correct it after it was done. Serbia, however, took
the action of the two provinces as a menace and declared war against
the new state of Bulgaria. She seemed about to throw herself on her
adversary when she suddenly made peace, evidently feeling she was not
strong enough to carry on the war alone.
 
Thenceforth the Powers showed that they did not mean to allow the
Balkan states to profit by seizing parts of the decaying Turkish
Empire. But for their restraint it seems that the Turk would have been
expelled from Europe before the end of the nineteenth century.
 
Their intention was clearly manifested in regard to the island of
Crete, whose population long suffered from Turkish oppression. In
1896 the island was in revolt and the sultan was forced to promise
reforms. The assurance proved empty and in 1897 Greece interfered in
behalf of Crete. In the war that followed the Greeks fought heroically
but alone and were no match for Turkey in operations on land. They
made peace without success, but through the instrumentality of the
Great Powers the sultan agreed to allow Crete self-government under
an elected assembly. The powers let it be known that they would not
have the island annexed to Greece, which they did not mean to make a
preponderating influence in the Balkans. Now appeared a great Cretan
leader, Eleutherios Venezelos, whom his admirers call the Cavour of
Greece. Under his influence the Cretan assembly voted the union of the
island with Greece in 1905, but again the Powers interposed, insisting
that the sovereignty of the sultan should not be abrogated. However,
they permitted the Greek king to appoint a representative to rule the
island as a Turkish fief, and Greek officers were allowed to train the
Cretan soldiers and police. At last the Balkan war (1912-1913) brought
the completion of union, the Great Powers yielding their assent.
 
The explanation of the conduct of the Powers in this incident is to be
found in the delicate nature of the whole Balkan question. With Austria
and Russia keenly aroused and each of the Balkan states anxiously
looking for the moment when the rest of the sultan’s territory in
Europe was to be divided between them, it was evident that a little
thing could precipitate a serious conflict. It was in view of this
phase of the situation that the Balkans were called “the tinder-box of
Europe.”
 
It will be observed that while these things happened the Balkan states
were developing steadily in national resources and spirit. Greece,
Serbia, Bulgaria, and Rumania became vitally organized powers, it
became more and more evident that they were no longer mere pawns in the
diplomatic game, and the time was fast approaching when they would wish
to take parts on their own initiative. So assertive were they becoming
that it was certain that the time would soon come when the Great Powers
would tire of the process of holding conferences to keep these states
out of trouble. It is not an easy task to serve as custodian for a
“tinder-box.”
 
A fair warning of this kind of danger occurred in 1908. For
twenty-three years Bulgaria had remained undisturbed, giving herself
to a rapid process of educational and industrial development, in both
of which lines she had come under the influence of German methods.
Suddenly she threw off her nominal Turkish sovereignty and declared
herself an entirely independent state. At the same time, and evidently
by agreement with the German Empire, Austria-Hungary announced that
she would hold Bosnia-Herzegovina as an integral part of her empire,
thus superseding the “occupation” that was authorized by the congress
of Berlin, in 1878. Serbia took the matter as a great injury, but she
could do nothing alone. Her natural ally was Russia, then recovering
from the severe losses of the war against Japan. Had the tsar been
ready for war it is doubtful if he would have drawn the sword in this
instance; for a world war would have resulted, and the nations were
not yet ready to think of such an undertaking. But Serbia nursed her
wrongs and to Russia the sense of her shame grew as she thought how her
weakness had been flaunted in the face of the world. The day came when
the fire could no longer be smothered.
 
To understand Serbia’s feelings we must recall the national ideal by
which her hopes had been formed for many years. Most of the people
of Montenegro, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Novi-Bazar, and the northwestern
corner of Macedonia were Serbs by blood. To unite them into a great
Serbia had long been spoken of in Serbia as the “Great Idea.” When,
therefore, Austria took definite possession of Bosnia-Herzegovina the
“Great Idea” seemed defeated forever. Rage and despair possessed the
Serbs wherever they lived, patriotic societies voiced the feeling of
the people, and vengeance was plotted. Probably it was the feeling that
this wide-spread hatred should be uprooted in the most thorough manner
that prompted Austria to make the heavy conditions that were demanded
as atonement for the crime of Sarajevo.
 
After Austria took the fateful step of 1908 Turkey still held the
territory just north of the Bosphorus, organized as the province of
Adrianople. She also had in Europe the provinces of Macedonia, Albania,
and the sanjak of Novi-Bazar. To drive her out of these possessions
was the object of the Balkan states. In 1911 Italy began a war against
the sultan to gain Tripoli. The Balkan States seeing their enemy
embarrassed, concluded that the hour of fate had come. They formed the
Balkan League, made up of Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Montenegro, and
made ready for war. Their action alarmed the Great Powers, who brought
the Concert of Europe to bear against the League. They gave the allies
fair notice that they would not permit them to take any of the sultan’s
territory in Europe, even though a war was won against him. The reply
to this threat shows how weak the Concert had become. It was voiced by
Montenegro, the smallest of the states, whose king immediately declared
war and called on his allies to aid him in driving the pagan out of
Europe. The call was accepted gladly and an ultimatum was sent to the
sultan, who, relying on the promise of the Powers, defied his opponents.
 
In the war that followed Turkey was confronted by a united army of
nearly a million men. It was impossible to withstand them and in two
months most of Macedonia was lost, Constantinople was threatened,
and Turkey asked for an armistice. Negotiations began in London, the
Powers seemingly forgetting their empty threat that they “would not
permit at the end of the conflict any modification of the territorial
_status quo_ in European Turkey.” The allies demanded hard terms which
seemed about to be accepted by Turkey when by a _coup d’état_ the
“Young Turks,” a patriotic party of reformers, got possession of the
government at Constantinople and resumed the fighting. Although they
fought well, they could not withstand the large numbers that were
against them. Janina fell to the Greeks, Adrianople was taken by a
Serbo-Bulgarian force, and Scutari was taken by the Montenegrins. The
Turks now yielded definitely and negotiations for peace were resumed.
 
Behind the diplomatic proceedings was the following interesting
situation: Austria-Hungary was dismayed at the prospect of having a
strong and permanent league organized in the Balkans; for it would
probably make it impossible for her to realize her desire to extend
her territory in that direction. She was especially unwilling to allow
Serbia and Montenegro to hold the conquered shore of the Adriatic,
since it was here that she designed to gain additional outlets to the
seas. Italy at the same time was alarmed at the extension of Serbian
power, since she, also, did not relish the prospect of having a
strong state on the eastern side of the sea. It was with unexpected
short-sightedness, however, that she was willing to block Serbia in
order to promote the schemes of Austria, a far more formidable rival
in that quarter, if she were ever firmly established there. Both
states, therefore, appeared at London to limit the expansion of Serbia,
and Germany supported them, seemingly on the principle that she was
merely standing by the members of the Triple Alliance. It has been
supposed that she expected that Ferdinand, heir-apparent of Austria,
when he came to rule, would promote a vital union of the two great
Mid-Continental empires. If we accept this theory, we must conclude
that she had a still more vital reason for wishing Austria to have a
large Adriatic coast-line, with important commercial harbors.
 
These considerations ran exactly counter to Serbia’s hopes in Albania.
She had already occupied the Albanian port of Durazzo and expected to
make it the center of a fair commercial life. When ordered to withdraw
she did not dare refuse; but it was a great humiliation to her to cut
off the possibility of her future growth. For a second time Austria had
given her a vital blow, and there was another wrong to be remembered
by those Serbians who were inclined to remember. By the decree of the
Powers Albania was made an autonomous state under Turkish suzerainty,
and later on a German prince was appointed to rule it.
 
While these affairs were being discussed Montenegro besieged Scutari,
in northern Albania and continued operation until the place was
taken, notwithstanding the purpose of the Powers was well known.
Her courageous conduct won the admiration of lovers of brave men
everywhere. Eight days after the capture of Scutari, Austria announced
that she would enter the war if the place was not evacuated, and Italy
and Germany declared they would support her. Throughout all Slavic
countries arose a cry of indignation. In Russia especially it was loud
and bitter; and it seemed that a great war was about to begin when
King Nicholas, of Montenegro, gave the world the assurance of peace by
withdrawing his army from Scutari.
 
Then came that unhappy turn of affairs by which the Balkan League was
dissolved and the hope disappeared that a strong power would arise
which would take the Near East out of the position of pawn for the
greed of the Great Powers. Serbia, Greece, and Bulgaria had made an
ante-bellum agreement for the disposal of the territory they would take
from Turkey, and the first was to have a large part of Albania. Denied
this region she asked her allies to make a new allotment. Bulgaria
raised strong objection, since the new demand, if granted, would mean
that her gains would be smaller than was first agreed. Angry speeches
led to war, and after a sharp struggle Bulgaria was beaten and forced
to make peace without honor. While they were locked in the conflict
Turkey seized the opportunity to recover Adrianople, and eventually
held it. It illustrates the sordid nature of some of the Balkan states
that Rumania entered this war for purely predatory purposes. She had
remained neutral during the common effort to drive the Turk out; but
now that Bulgaria was marching to sure defeat she came into the battle

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