The Lost Fruits of Waterloo 19
CHAPTER IX
IF THE SUBMARINES FAIL
The German people say the submarines will not fail. They seem to think
that what they call the highest achievement of the scientific mind of
Germany cannot fail. There is little doubt that they pin on this arm of
the service their last hope of securing a decision in actual warfare.
If it fails them they can look forward only to a long course of sheer
dogged resistance, hoping they can last longer than their adversaries.
Let us consider the probable results respectively of the success and
the failure of the submarine campaign.
If the under-sea boats do all the Germans expect of them the result is
soon told. Great Britain will be forced to make lame and inefficient
war, France will be unable to do more than hold on to the line that
she occupies, and the United States, unable to send her vast army
across the seas in large numbers, will not be able to repair the loss
of strength that her allies sustain. Under such circumstances Russia,
even if she should recover from her present state of weakness, could
hardly deliver the blows that would bring Germany to reason.
Under such conditions the war would end without the defeat of the
Teutons, and Mittel-Europa would still be impending. If the enthusiasm
of victory would stimulate such a union, the realization that Germany
and Austria-Hungary were pressed back to the wall and must fight
for their future existence might equally bring them to unite their
fortunes. In fact, if these two states wish to unite it is hard to see
how they are to be prevented, unless at the end of the war they are so
much weaker than their opponents that they can be forbidden to take
such a step, with assurance that the prohibition will be respected.
To form such a union would be, in fact, to snatch victory out of
sore distress; for the united empires, even though Serbia, Bulgaria,
and Turkey were left out of account, would have a population of
116,000,000, which is more than the population of the United States and
smaller only than that of Russia and China. Ten years’ breathing space
in which to reorganize the industrial and social life of so large a
body of men would work wonders with them; and when reorganized and
fired by a common ambition they would be able to dictate terms to any
two of the nations of Western Europe. It is the probable union of these
states rather than the power of either when acting alone, that makes it
necessary for the rest of the world to procure their defeat.
In two ways the union can be prevented. One is to inflict such a defeat
on the central allies that they will not dare run the risk of another
war through endeavoring to combine. Possibly such a defeat could be
inflicted by fighting long and winning great victories. It would have
to be a greater victory than was won by Prussia over France in 1871;
for after that victory France, fired with hatred for all that was
German, was so much feared by her conquerors that it became a chief
object of their diplomacy to keep her isolated by drawing possible
allies over to the German interest. The great military strength of
Germany at present hardly warrants the hope that she can be brought to
a lower state than France at the end of the siege of Paris.
The other method is to bring about such a situation that union shall
not be desired in the Teutonic states. For it is not to be disputed
that if ever a strong and competent group of states wish to become
an empire, nothing short of a great war by other states can stop
them. It behooves us, therefore, to make our appeal to the reasons of
the Germans, Austrians and Hungarians. It is not necessary to limit
our arguments to words merely; it is, however, essential that the
Teutonic mind shall understand what to threaten the equilibrium of
nations means. To show that such a preponderance cannot be established
practically would be an effective warning to those leaders who set up
to preach Germanic militarism in the future.
As this chapter is being printed, it seems that the submarines are not
a success. They have taken a great toll but not all the grist. Enough
ships are left on the sea to carry the minimum of food and war material
that our allies must have to maintain their grip on Germany. The war of
the central powers does not force their enemies to their knees, and it
seems that the best the kaiser can hope for is to hold out for a time
with the expectation that victory will be snatched by accident out of
the gloom that hangs over his cause.
When the war began it was essentially a contest between two groups of
powers, each of which had been pursuing policies of aggrandizement.
One group had progressively acquired territory in Africa and Asia,
and the other had a plan equally definite for acquiring territory in
Southeastern Europe and the Near East. If the war had been fought out
as begun it would probably have led to the realization of one or the
other of these desires. Either the _Entente_ powers would have fixed
their hold on their respective spheres of influence and broken the
schemes of Germany and Austria-Hungary, or Germany would have made a
great sweep forward and established herself in the keystone position of
Europe, with immense consequences for the future.
As the war progressed it became evident that it was becoming a supreme
test of the ability of one combination of nations to create a new
empire that would dominate Europe. It is no stretch of imagination
to say that the Germans dreamed of reëstablishing a modern Roman
Empire of the Germans. If the scheme had materialized--and the future
historian will probably conclude that it was near success at one
time--the fate of the rest of the world would have been far different
from what we wish it to be. A gigantic struggle would have been thrust
upon the United States to save the Western World from conquest. It was
the conviction that such a crisis actually menaced us that brought us
to join in the attempt to block the German plans.
Assuming, therefore, that the anti-German allies are victorious, it is
unthinkable that the war shall be allowed to end as a mere check on
the plans of the central powers. To do so would be to grant that the
_Entente_ powers should be left to carry on their plans for national
aggrandizement with _carte blanche_ approval by the United States. It
would mean that we are fighting at a great sacrifice in order to enable
Great Britain to maintain her position as mistress of the sea and ruler
of a far distant empire. Now we do not object to British rule in the
distant parts of the earth: we have found it a tolerable thing that she
should be entrusted with the task of developing the backward races over
whom she has established her authority. But we have never meant to
save her toppling empire for her own comfort, as an act of grace merely.
If we are to contribute a material part to the suppression of
aggression in the world, we have a right to say in what way and
to what end our sacrifice will have been made. As the greatest of
the anti-German allies we shall have the largest burden to bear in
proportion to the time in which we are to fight. That we should
guarantee to Great Britain and our other allies the full existence
of their rights is but fair. It is equally reasonable that we shall
demand that the future does not inure to the special advantage of any
one of the group; but in fixing upon the terms under which it shall be
arranged the main end in view should be the good of all the nations in
the world.
This is a view which is likely to have the support of all the
anti-German allies, with the possible exception of Britain. France and
Russia, to say nothing of the smaller states, have the same interest as
we in making the common welfare the chief aim in peace negotiations.
If we were not in the group and if victory came to it, these nations
would perforce have to yield the lead to Great Britain, since she
would outclass them in strength by reason of her sea power. She might
well say that as the nation on which would fall the largest burden in
keeping Germany in a state of restraint, she should have the largest
influence in deciding what was to be done. She cannot make such a claim
under existing conditions.
Of course, there is the difficulty that the United States may not
be guided by statesmen who realize the importance of following a
thoroughly American policy. It has long been a practice with a great
many Americans to follow the lead of Great Britain. Unaccustomed to
take a normal share of responsibility in world problems, we may now be
inclined to hold back, leaving the game to hands that have acquired
greater skill in playing it. Such a course would be a misfortune. It
would mean that statesmen would be given charge of the situation who
derived all their ideas under the old system of Balance of Power, and
it would be strange if they did not try to carry on the world in the
future with a strong squint at the only principles of international
policy they know anything about. To break into this well crystallized
realm of so-called practical ideas, demands an unusually strong man,
a man well founded in principles and able to convince others of the
wisdom of his views.
It is true that the President of the United States now in office has
many of the traits that seem necessary to a correct conduct of the
situation. A man who had the training of a mere politician might well
be less than able to deal with the situation that faces us. President
Wilson’s knowledge of history enables him to think in terms of large
national movements. That is the chief value of historical training to
a statesman. If he knows the history of the attempts to settle the
affairs of the nations after the great world struggles of the past, he
is better able to understand how the various suggested plans will work
in the crisis that is to be passed through.
President Wilson has, also, the unusual faculty of doing what he wishes
to do. When he has formed a purpose it is not generally a compromise
with a number of men whose chief concern is how the result of action
will affect their party support. At least this is true in matters not
clearly within the bounds of party activity. Moreover, he has spoken
and written words which seem to show that he understands the need of
providing for such a course of conduct between the nations as will
assure us of coöperation for the elimination of future wars. In his
long delay in urging war and in his early pronouncement for a league of
peace, he gave us the assurance, if nothing else, that he understands
the situation and is capable of holding a firm course in accordance
with his principles.
If the submarines fail, therefore, and if we come to a settlement of
the largely new world problems that will confront us, and if our policy
is in the hands of wise men, what principles will guide our actions
and the actions of the rest of the world? This is a question that all
intelligent citizens should consider, since it cannot be answered
well unless there is a restrained and broad-minded public opinion to
support the leaders of the people. It is a matter for the consideration
of Germans as well as their opponents; for their attitude toward any
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