2016년 4월 28일 목요일

The Lost Fruits of Waterloo 17

The Lost Fruits of Waterloo 17



While these two processes of national feeling ran their courses,
several political events, which have already been described added
vigor to the antagonism that was rising against Germany. Her attitude
toward the Boers when they were at war against Great Britain was one,
Delcassé’s wise adjustment of the Fashoda incident was another, his
clever formation of the _Entente Cordiale_ between France and Britain
was another, the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese alliance was still
another, the defeat of Russia by Japan and her elimination as a threat
against British interests in India was another, and the formation of
the Triple _Entente_ by Great Britain, France, and Russia, announced in
1907, was the final act of the series. Great Britain was not only again
seriously concerned in Continental affairs, but a combination had been
formed of three great European nations, with the strongest power of the
East as a flying buttress, to hold back the much dreaded aggressions
of the Triple Alliance, consisting of Germany, Austria, and Italy. The
Balance of Power had come to its most logical state of development;
for instead of having one great state balancing between the other
states around it, we now had the great states of the world ranged in
two camps, each side checking the other in the belief that in so doing
it was preserving the world from war.
 
It is hard to establish a balance when two opposing sides are strong
and mutually jealous of one another; for the opposition of forces is
then formed to secure mutual advantages, and not to promote the common
interest through the preservation of equilibrium. In such a case one
side or the other, possibly each side, is apt to fancy itself the
stronger, and if it acts on that assumption it arouses the apprehension
of the other which finds itself tempted to make a counter stroke.
Once such a step is taken equilibrium is lost. This is what happened
in 1914. The train of events that led up to the destruction of the
international balance is now to be described.
 
Here we must go back to the days when Delcassé was foreign secretary
in Paris, 1898-1905. One of his achievements was to come to agreement
with Spain and Italy in reference to the northern coast of Africa. He
effected a treaty with the former nation by which French and Spanish
spheres of influence in Morocco were defined, and another with Italy
by which the right of France in Tunis was accorded in exchange for
recognition of the right of Italy to Tripoli and Cyrenaica.
 
Making this treaty by Italy did not constitute treason to the Triple
Alliance, since it was clearly advantageous for Italy without
infringing the rights of either Germany or Austria; but it alarmed
Germany, already drawing close to Turkey, because the object of Italian
policy was to get territory over which Turkey had a vital claim. Nor
was it pleasant for the kaiser to see one of the members of the Triple
Alliance acting in coöperation with the members of the _Entente_ in so
important a matter.
 
Taking these achievements in connection with the formation of the Dual
Alliance and the mutual approach of France and Great Britain, Germany
had reason to feel that she was being isolated. Her whole population
resented this turn of events, seeing in it a sort of challenge hurled
forth by France, who at last found herself strong enough to assume
a position of self-assertion. It is true that Delcassé only placed
Germany in a position of isolation like that which Bismarck imposed on
France for many years; and it was, in strict logic, as fair for him
to treat Germany thus as for Bismarck to isolate France. Let Germany
submit to her fate, as France submitted, when she had to submit. But
we are not dealing with logical matters here. It is a plain fact that
confronts us. Germany, who had been strong through three decades
without seeking to expand her territory, suddenly realized that
her opponents were forming a combination stronger than hers, their
acquisition of territory that followed set her in a rage, and she made
plans for getting her share in the world that was to be taken. Under
the system of balance then recognized as the proper means of regulating
international relations her course was a natural result of Delcassé’s
policy.
 
The particular portion of the earth to which she turned her eyes was
Turkey. While she supported the plans of Austria-Hungary to acquire
territory on the Adriatic, she herself looked further to the East. She
encouraged the party at Constantinople known as the “Young Turks,”
she furnished improved arms to the Turkish army, she formed plans
to establish her influence in Palestine, and she projected a great
railroad to Bagdad in the center of the Euphrates-Tigris Valley. It was
a sphere of influence that might be considered more than a fair offset
for the lands her rivals were about to gain.
 
At the same time Germany found a means of restoring her prestige, which
was sorely wilted by the progress of her rivals. The occasion arose in
connection with France’s occupation of Morocco, which had begun without
the aid or consent of the kaiser.
 
Morocco had long been under a line of independent sultans. Most of
her commerce was with Great Britain although German capitalists had
received concessions within her border. As the country next to the
French province of Algeria, France looked upon it as her own particular
sphere of influence. We have already seen that Italy conceded this
claim, 1901, while France conceded Italy’s claim to Tripoli and
Cyrenaica. In 1904 France conceded Great Britain’s practical supremacy
in Egypt and in return was assured the protectorate over Morocco. She
asked no concession from Germany but came to an agreement with Spain,
who had a small strip of territory south of the Straits of Gibraltar.
 
In 1905 Delcassé was quietly preparing to carry out his plan for the
development of Morocco, when the kaiser landed in Tangiers without
the slightest warning, and announced in a public address that he had
come to visit his friend, the independent sultan of Morocco, in whose
country all foreign nations had equal rights. The speech was received
by the world as a challenge to France and a means of announcing that
Germany was no longer to be ignored. The moment of the landing at
Tangiers was well chosen by the kaiser; for only three weeks earlier
Russia, the ally of France, had been defeated by the Japanese at Mukden
and could give her no assistance.
 
In this unfortunate situation it was necessary for France to bend
before the storm. She agreed to submit the whole Moroccan question
to an international congress, thus appealing to the principle of the
Concert of Europe, and when she learned that the kaiser demanded that
she dismiss the minister whose hands had been played so skillfully
against Germany, she agreed to that also.
 
The dismissal of Delcassé recalls an incident of 1807. In that year
Napoleon forced the king of Prussia to dismiss Stein, his great
minister, who was bending all his efforts to reëstablish Prussia on a
war footing. It marked the triumph of Napoleon’s power for the time
being, but it was a futile action; for Stein out of office under such
circumstances had more influence than ever, and the shameful way in
which he was treated only emphasized Prussia’s humiliation and made the
Prussians more determined than ever to assert their national power.
Similar results in France in 1905 followed the stab given to that
nation’s faithful and efficient minister.
 
The international congress assembled at Algeciras in 1906. It adopted
a compromise decision, which gave something to each side and satisfied
neither. Germany was supposed to have gained when the congress
recognized the territorial integrity of Morocco under the sovereignty
of the sultan and guaranteed equal rights of trade in the country to
the citizens of all the signatory powers. On the other hand, France
and Spain were jointly to have the right to instruct and furnish
officers for the Moroccan police force. Winning in a quarrel rarely
makes the victor think well of the vanquished. Certainly Germany,
who had now blocked the plans of France, was not less bitter in her
attitude toward that nation; while France, feeling that she had been
caught at a disadvantage, smothered her indignation and waited for the
opportunity to make things even.
 
In 1907 disturbances occurred in Moroccan ports and French marines
were landed to preserve order. When they were not withdrawn in a year
Germany protested and an irritating diplomatic discussion followed. At
last Germany was persuaded to submit the point actually at issue to
the Hague tribunal, whose decision was not conclusive and satisfied
neither side. Then a Franco-German convention was held to pass on the
rights of each nation in Morocco. Its decision, given in February,
1909, announced that the interest of Germany in the province was
only economic; and as France agreed to give equal protection in such
matters, the kaiser promised he would not interfere in the country. In
each of these incidents war seemed about to begin, and Europe awaited
the results in great anxiety. When the clouds lifted the nations
breathed freely again.
 
Still there was no way under the existing system to solve the
difficulty that presented itself, had Germany only decided that she
would not trust her cause to peaceful negotiation. The fact that she
took such a step was to her own people but a mark of the kaiser’s
love of peace. This and similar incidents, in which the militarists
carried their country to the verge of war only to be held back by the
hand of the emperor served to lay the foundation for that popular
belief in Germany that a peace policy had been steadily followed under
provocations and that Europe was indebted to Wilhelm II for immunity
from war. In reality the system of balance of power had needlessly
brought the world to the verge of a bitter and unnecessary conflict.
 
Almost immediately after the war clouds lifted Europe had evidence of
the small amount of tolerance the leading classes of Germany had for
the slightest manifestation of the spirit of compromise in the matter
under discussion. The chancellor under whom the recent settlement was
made was von Bülow, who thought it better to adjust so small a quarrel
than to incur the responsibility of war. His action received the stern
denunciation of the military party. So strong was the criticism that he
was forced to retire from office, his place going to Bethmann-Hollweg,
who had the support of the militarists. The only explanation to be
advanced for this turn of the affair is that the German national spirit
was so much excited by the long agitation of men like Treitschke that a
concession which others might consider only trifling seemed to them a
sacrifice of national honor.
 
In 1911 occurred a third Moroccan incident, in which Bethmann-Hollweg
took occasion to recover some of the attitude of assertiveness that
von Bülow had given up in 1909. In pursuance of their plan to extend
their protectorate over Morocco the French occupied Fez with a military
force. A short time later the German warship _Panther_ entered the
Moroccan port of Agadir, ostensibly to protect German property. It was
soon known that the German government proposed to hold the _Panther_ at
Agadir un

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